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Cake day: January 29th, 2025

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  • The diaspora vote is particularly favourable to the far right in the countries where Romanian expatriates are most numerous, namely in Western Europe …

    “Their vote is a protest vote against the traditional parties, which are seen as corrupt,” explained Antonela Cappelle-Pogacean, a researcher at Sciences-Po and a specialist in Romania.

    “But it’s also a vote with socio-economic motivations, since in these Western societies, members of the Romanian diaspora are to be found among the working classes. Finally, it’s also a vote about identity, since the integration of these people is sometimes difficult, and they are in a way torn between their rebuilt lives and their desire to return to Romania.”

    East-west split

    In Eastern European countries such as Poland, Moldova and Hungary, however, the pro-European candidate Nicusor Dan came first.

    This result can be explained by Simion’s hostile stance on sending military aid to Ukraine, and by the pro-Russian stance of Calin Georgescu, the candidate who topped the poll in November and whose legacy the leader of the Alliance for Romanian Unity claims to inherit.

    The diaspora vote is therefore directly linked to the economic and geopolitical context of the countries where Romanian expatriates live.





  • Misleading title as China’s drop of emissions has a particular reason that is likely about to vanish now.

    China’s overall power demand during the opening months of 2025 was impacted by the stunted state of its economy, which has been hampered by an enduring construction sector credit crisis and more lately by the new trade war with the United States.

    Lower output by industrial plants and factories in turn reduced demand for power by the commercial sector, and allowed utilities to reduce output from fossil fuels by 4% during January to March from the same period in 2024.

    Going forward, however, China’s manufacturers are likely to boost production following the recently announced 90-day trade truce between China and the United States.

    Higher factory activity will directly trigger more power demand, and will likely force Chinese power firms to lift output from fossil fuels to ensure adequate power supplies over the coming months.



  • Yeah, Hungary has become China’s leading investment destination in the EU, supported by extraordinarily generous state subsidies. For example, Hungary’s greatest solar energy project is underway in Szolnok with Chinese Huawei, a company that is banned in the meantime by Europe’s solar association of bribery accusations.

    Hungary’s cooperation with China has drawn scrutiny in Brussels and from EU member states over security concerns and their potential to distort competition in the single market.



  • Nice poll, but FDIs and other investments are a bit more complex, especially when facing the current uncertainties in global economies.

    This is also what the Global Investment Trends Monitor by UNTAD says.

    TLDR:

    • In 2024, global FDI rose 11% to an estimated $1.4 trillion but dipped by 8% when excluding flows through European conduit economies – which often serve as transfer points for investments before they reach their final destination – reflecting a world grappling with shifting economic dynamics and persistent uncertainties.

    • Developed economies experienced sharp contrasts. North America saw a 13% rise in FDI, driven by an 80% increase in US mergers and acquisitions (M&A). The value of greenfield projects – new investments in foreign markets – surged 93% in the US, reaching $266 billion, spurred by semiconductor megaprojects. The United Kingdom also saw a 32% increase in greenfield investments to $85 billion, and Italy posted a remarkable 71% jump to $43 billion.

    • In Europe, FDI fell 45% when excluding conduit economies, with 18 out of 27 European Union countries seeing drops. Germany’s FDI plunged 60% and Italy’s fell 35%. Even greenfield investments, vital for future growth, dropped 10% across Europe, though the region saw a 15% rise in total project value, signaling the significance of a few large-scale projects.

    • Asia saw inflows decline by 7%. China faced a 29% drop, now 40% below its 2022 peak. In contrast, India recorded a 13% increase in FDI, boosted by growth in greenfield project announcements. Meanwhile, ASEAN countries (Brunei Darussalam, Burma, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam) saw modest growth, with FDI increasing 2% to a record $235 billion.

    • In Latin America and the Caribbean, FDI declined by 9%, with Brazil’s inflows falling 5%. However, greenfield project numbers and values rose in Brazil, Argentina and Colombia, signaling potential future recovery. Mexico’s FDI rose 11%, despite weaker regional project announcements, showing resilience in the face of broader challenges.

    • Africa stood out, recording an 84% surge in FDI to $94 billion, largely due to a single megaproject in Egypt. Excluding this project, the continent’s FDI rose 23%, though the overall figure remained modest at $50 billion.

    According to its report, UNCTAD expects moderate global FDI growth in 2025, supported by improved financing conditions and renewed M&A activity, but says that “risks and uncertainties – including geopolitical tensions and global economic instability – pose significant challenges.”


  • Here is the unpaywalled/archived FT article which says:

    … The decision to abruptly end special trade arrangements — which allowed most Ukrainian goods to enter the EU duty free — came after Poland led a push to protect the bloc’s farmers, according to diplomats.

    The EU has an existing free trade deal with Ukraine but went further in the wake of Moscow’s 2022 invasion and temporarily suspended remaining duties.

    These arrangements lapse on June 6 and the EU is planning to replace it with “transitional measures” while the two sides update their overall trade agreement.

    But diplomats said this transitional proposal, recently sent to EU member states, would drastically cut the tariff-free quotas of agricultural products — a lifeline for Ukraine’s farmers and budget …

    Ahead of [Poland’s] presidential elections on Sunday [May 18], Warsaw asked the Commission to delay highly unpopular trade talks with Kyiv to minimise the chances of the nationalist opposition candidate, Karol Nawrocki, the diplomats said …

    “The Commission is also looking into possible transitional measures in case the negotiations are not finalised and applied by June 6,” the spokesperson added …



  • Here is a more elaborated report on that:

    Germany arrests 3 for planning Russian ‘sabotage’ attacks

    German investigators on Wednesday said that three men have been arrested on suspicion of acting as “agents” for “sabotage” on behalf of Russia.

    Officials said the three, all Ukrainian nationals, were prepared to commit acts of arson and planned to ship packages containing explosive devices, and had conveyed this to individuals “believed to be acting on behalf of Russian state authorities.” […]

    Authorities have warned of a growing threat of Russian acts of sabotage since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

    Authorities said one of the men arrested had discussed sabotage operations on German soil targeted industrial sites and military infrastructure in an attempt to undermine German aid to Ukraine. […]


  • This is a turbulent market, and Ford is not the only company hit by economic troubles and job cuts unfortunately. Nissan’s new CEO just announced that it could cut 11,000 jobs and close several plants due to profit losses. China’s Nio and Neta posted record losses in 2024 and job cuts, respectively.

    Over the the last couple of years, we have even seen insolvencies of many EV makers, particularly in China where the EV hype is supposedly the highest and a lot of new car makers have been emerging over 20 or so years. Even those European, U.S., and Chinese EV makers that are breaking sales records are often either struggling with falling profits or are already loosing money. Chinese car maker Xpeng’s CEO has warned a few months ago that many EV firms face a fight to survive. According to experts, one major problem is the overcapacity in China, which leads to intense price pressure.