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Cake day: 2023年10月6日

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  • Medieval peasants had SOOO many holidays.

    Holidays meant “you don’t have to work for the lord who owns your land”, but since they were subsistence farmers in the middle ages, that meant they still had to tend the animals and do the work on their own plots. They were absolutely still working during their “holidays”.








  • Starlink is already making more money than it costs to expand and operate, you are wrong.

    Honestly, there are no realistic, reliable figures either way. There are plenty of guesstimates, and they show a profit now, but that with a very significant investment in growth. And that investment comes in large part from external sources, which means that when the happy time ends and the satellites fail at the same rate as they’re currently launches, they need to either make WAY more money, or rely on external funding.

    and counter to your beliefs over the next 10 years I’d wager the starlink network will balloon to many times its current size, 20,000 plus satellites

    Definitely, they’re on track to stabilize at around 36.000 with the current launch cadence. That’s where every new satellite is a replacement. But that doesn’t count money, which is the problem, and will be more of a problem when expenses replace growth.

    and that cost will continue to decrease as the Falcon 9 program continues to improve and as starship becomes operational over the next few years.

    Eh, I wouldn’t be too sure of that. Falcon 9 costs haven’t gone down in years. Falcon Heavy is supposed to be cheaper per ton, yet somehow is almost never used for Starlink or anything else. Starship isn’t even projected to be cheaper than Falcon 9 (I except in what are basically ads).




  • When I calculate the “time of fun per euro spent” I’m always shocked how cheap videogames are. Even something like the new Doom, which is 70 euros for 16 hours of play, comes down to €4.40 per hour (or just under 14 minutes per euro). And we consider that ridiculously expensive for a “short” game.

    Try doing anything for < €5 per hour.

    Then I look at something like Warhammer total war, and I’m up to 132 minutes per euro spent


  • On https://satellitemap.space/ you can see the numbers pretty accurately under “status over time”. The current launch cadence is steady since mid 2022, and the burn rate is climbing to match. It seems to have a 5 year delay, but it’s possible the new satellites will last a little longer.

    Which means that by mid 2027 earliest and mid 2029, the current “investment” in “growth” will have become the regular maintenance spending. And up to that point, maintenance costs will continue to climb to consume the entire investment budget.


  • Yeah, the big problem is that by definition most people live in the places where most people live. Urbanisation is over 80% in Europe and the US (and European countries hold a much looser definition of “urban” than the US).

    To increase service to most people, you need to upgrade the entire world, which is expensive.

    I’m not 100% sure they are not profitable.

    I am. They’re reporting a profit right now because theyre calling the cost of new satellites as “investment” and not expenses. In a few years, when every satellite launched is a replacement, those “investments” become running costs, and there goes the profit.







  • And they first batches of the current network are at their end of life. That means that with the same level of investment, growth will slow down, which is terrible for venture capital.

    And orbital mechanics is a bitch. You can’t add more speed to a certain area (like a city with a lot of people) and less to the empty ocean. So there’s a harsh density limit to your subscribes.


  • perpetually burning up satellites in the atmosphere is a pretty shitty business though.

    Exactly. The business isn’t remotely sustainable. All that money being invested into new satellites will, by next year, need to be invested constantly to keep the network at the same size.

    Starlink needs run as fast as it can, just to stay in the same place, and the investment money is finite when people see it’s not going to grow.