Statistics generally show that people with guns in their house are much more likely to be fatally shot. Suicide is a big factor, as are domestic disputes. It seems that generally, there are points in many people’s lives of extreme emotional anguish or rage, and if they have access to a firearm at that point they will use it, with deadly consequences. On the other side of the equation, successfully preventing harm with a firearm is comparatively more rare. In other words, owning guns causes more harm than it prevents.
At a societal level the same picture more or less bears out: the more guns available in a community, the higher the incidence rates of gun violence. This is true independent of crime levels, income, or demographics.
It therefore seems desirable to attempt to reduce the number of guns in private ownership. For the United States, that’s quite a complicated task, and I don’t see any realistic path to a gun-free society. Especially not with ~50% of the country opposed to such a goal. Probably the first step would have to be to increase public support for gun control, otherwise all efforts are futile.
Fwiw, some of the lowest crime areas in the USA have some of the most lenient firearms regulation. New Hampshire for example had something like 27 total homicides in all of 2023, including ones not involving a firearm. Most of those were domestic disputes. The crime rate there is absurdly low even when you compare it to the small wealthy European nations everyone likes to circlejerk about. NH has one of the highest rates of gun ownership in the USA, and allows carrying without a license and no registration or anything needed to purchase.
I know that’s just an anecdote but it does beg the question of whether guns have a causal relationship to crime rates or simply a correlation. I am inclined to believe it’s overwhelmingly the latter and only a sprinkle of the former, based on the research I’ve done.
To extend that, gun control is worse than useless if what you care about is saving lives and reducing crime. The effect is minimal at best, and performative more than anything else. Every tax dollar and minute we spend on gun control could have a far greater payoff if we directed it toward addressing the root causes of these tragedies. Instead we just use guns as a scapegoat, pass restrictions on them, then pat ourselves on the back while kids continue to grow up in crippling poverty and adults are left with no support systems to turn to when life shits on them.
Literally every town bullshit. This is propaganda which is utter nonsense. It’s like saying people with pools are more likely to drown in them. It uses suicide statics to try and back up it’s claim, which doesn’t work because DGUs happen at a far higher rate than suicides.
On the other side of the equation, successfully preventing harm with a firearm is comparatively more rare. In other words, owning guns causes more harm than it prevents.
Super quick DDG search, I haven’t vetted these links but in general it’s understood that firearms are used defensively far more than they are used for harm - but the exact numbers are extremely difficult to measure. There’s an issue of reporting and recording the incidents, as well as the obvious conflicting motivations from each side citing their own numbers.
If you read your linked articles and surveys you will see, that they’re even arguing against your argument.
Just to quote some stuff:
David Hemenway, who led the Harvard research, argues that the risks of owning a gun outweigh the benefits of having one in the rare case where you might need to defend yourself.
“The average person … has basically no chance in their lifetime ever to use a gun in self-defense,” he tells Here & Now’s Robin Young. “But … every day, they have a chance to use the gun inappropriately. They have a chance, they get angry. They get scared.”
“If we don’t even have a minimum standard, not for training, but for performance validation for our law enforcement,” he says, “how in God’s name is anybody going to say, ‘Well, just because you have a gun in your pocket, you know how to use it in self-defense?’ You don’t.”
End quote
And some of the other stuff seems very biased:
The largest and most comprehensive survey of American gun owners ever conducted suggests that they use firearms in self-defense about 1.7 million times a year. It also confirms that AR-15-style rifles and magazines that hold more than 10 rounds, frequent targets of gun control legislation, are in common use for lawful purposes, which the Supreme Court has said is the test for arms covered by the Second Amendment.
The online survey, which was conducted by Centiment in February and March of 2021, was based on a representative sample of about 54,000 adults, 16,708 of whom were gun owners. Georgetown University political economist William English, who commissioned the survey as part of a book project, presents its major findings in a recent paper available on the Social Science Research Network.
End quote
I mean, a survey for owners of guns… Of course if you own a weapon like that, you will tell everyone that you use it for self defense. And probably enough people who say they did that, just lie…
I haven’t clicked his links, but assuming he’s linking you to the Harvard study, that study in an effort to debunk Kleck and Lott’s figures used by the CDC estimated “a more realistic DGU/yr at 100,000.” Well, being that there are 60,000 total gun deaths/yr in this country including suicide, I’m inclined to believe that based on the raw numbers they do in fact get used more for defense than to kill oneself or others, as 100k>60k.
This is a naive comparison, as you are not counting the many cases where people use guns to harm others without killing them. There are on the order of 500,000 fatal and nonfatal violent crimes involving a firearm committed every year in The United States.
I appreciate you challenging my numbers, but you’re not being very helpful finding actual sources. I found a report from the bureau of justice statistics that says 478,400 total cases of firearm violence in 2011. I see it trending upward from 2008-2011 as well, though that’s probably a consequence of the financial crisis.
Firearm violence = a firearm was involved. It doesn’t even have to be fired.
In 2007-11, about 23% of all nonfatal firearm victims were
physically injured during the victimization (table 9). About
7% suffered serious injuries (e.g., a gunshot wound, broken
bone, or internal injuries), while 16% suffered minor injuries
(e.g., bruises or cuts). Of the nonfatal firearm victims who
were injured, 72% received some type of care, with about
82% receiving care in a hospital or medical office.
The victim reported that the offender had fired the weapon
in 7% of all nonfatal firearm victimizations. The victim
suffered a gunshot wound in 28% of these victimizations
(not shown in table).
Literally firearms just being around in an altercation = firearm violence.
I haven’t seen anything corroborating those numbers, however even in that case if we include defensive display in our DGU numbers (which the Harvard study entirely discounted on the basis of “we have no real way of knowing those numbers,”) that raises the DGUs as well. Thing is defensive display is by far and wide the most likely defensive use, it is when a person is able to drive off the threat just by showing (drawing, pointing, etc) the firearm on/at the attacker. Harvard is right that there’s no way to get an accurate report on how many because they’re often not reported to the police, as that takes a lot of time and effort that could easily be shrugged off with a “eh I’m fine, didn’t have to fire, fuck it.” An example is this video. Though this clerk did likely report it especially given the accompanying video evidence, many in his position (especially not on the clock or camera) don’t report.
Some estimates of dgu/yr including those defensive displays are as high as 3mil/yr. I think that’s probably a little high, but I’d wager they’re in the ballpark of 500,000 dgu/yr as well.
Though this is the “we need more good people carrying able to defend themselves” part, because although the number is growing still only 25% of people carry, and even most of them don’t do it every day. Can’t defend with what you don’t have. Statista says there’s 1.2 mil violent crimes in 2022, if guns are indeed i .5mil of those, that leaves .7mil where a defender with a gun would have had an outright advantage over the attacker.
In the end what we need to do is address the underlying socioeconomic issues that most often cause the violent crime. Even if we Thanosed all guns away there’s still the matter of .7mil violent crimes and now 100,000-500,000 people can’t even do anything to protect themselves against them. Addressing the causes would have a more measurable impact and wouldn’t deprive anyone of their rights unduly.
Like I stated, I didn’t vet any of the links - they were the first results on DDG for “defensive gun use statistics.” My point was that you can’t make a statement like “owning guns causes more harm than it prevents” unless you can back it up with more than just a gut feeling. I also acknowledged the difficulty in getting exact numbers partially because of “conflicting motivations from each side citing their own numbers.”
If we’re going to make factual declarations based solely on feelings then obviously the real problems with guns are caused by evil spirits corrupting our souls because we’ve strayed from God’s path.
Statistics generally show that people with guns in their house are much more likely to be fatally shot. Suicide is a big factor, as are domestic disputes. It seems that generally, there are points in many people’s lives of extreme emotional anguish or rage, and if they have access to a firearm at that point they will use it, with deadly consequences. On the other side of the equation, successfully preventing harm with a firearm is comparatively more rare. In other words, owning guns causes more harm than it prevents.
At a societal level the same picture more or less bears out: the more guns available in a community, the higher the incidence rates of gun violence. This is true independent of crime levels, income, or demographics.
It therefore seems desirable to attempt to reduce the number of guns in private ownership. For the United States, that’s quite a complicated task, and I don’t see any realistic path to a gun-free society. Especially not with ~50% of the country opposed to such a goal. Probably the first step would have to be to increase public support for gun control, otherwise all efforts are futile.
Fwiw, some of the lowest crime areas in the USA have some of the most lenient firearms regulation. New Hampshire for example had something like 27 total homicides in all of 2023, including ones not involving a firearm. Most of those were domestic disputes. The crime rate there is absurdly low even when you compare it to the small wealthy European nations everyone likes to circlejerk about. NH has one of the highest rates of gun ownership in the USA, and allows carrying without a license and no registration or anything needed to purchase.
I know that’s just an anecdote but it does beg the question of whether guns have a causal relationship to crime rates or simply a correlation. I am inclined to believe it’s overwhelmingly the latter and only a sprinkle of the former, based on the research I’ve done.
To extend that, gun control is worse than useless if what you care about is saving lives and reducing crime. The effect is minimal at best, and performative more than anything else. Every tax dollar and minute we spend on gun control could have a far greater payoff if we directed it toward addressing the root causes of these tragedies. Instead we just use guns as a scapegoat, pass restrictions on them, then pat ourselves on the back while kids continue to grow up in crippling poverty and adults are left with no support systems to turn to when life shits on them.
Did you know that people who own legos are much more likely to step on lego bricks?
And I know it’s a shock but people with elecricity in their homes are at a MUCH higher risk of death by electrocution and electrical fires.
That isn’t a good argument, no matter what it’s for/against.
You could say the same thing about a rope.
Those statistics are nonsense.
Further, suicide should be a human right.
Agreed that’s what euthanasia is for. But sort of an irrelevant point in a discussion on gun control, wouldn’t you agree?
I agree. So why are you bringing it?
Literally every town bullshit. This is propaganda which is utter nonsense. It’s like saying people with pools are more likely to drown in them. It uses suicide statics to try and back up it’s claim, which doesn’t work because DGUs happen at a far higher rate than suicides.
Super quick DDG search, I haven’t vetted these links but in general it’s understood that firearms are used defensively far more than they are used for harm - but the exact numbers are extremely difficult to measure. There’s an issue of reporting and recording the incidents, as well as the obvious conflicting motivations from each side citing their own numbers.
I don’t think you can definitively make the statement that they cause more harm than they prevent.
If you read your linked articles and surveys you will see, that they’re even arguing against your argument.
Just to quote some stuff:
David Hemenway, who led the Harvard research, argues that the risks of owning a gun outweigh the benefits of having one in the rare case where you might need to defend yourself.
“The average person … has basically no chance in their lifetime ever to use a gun in self-defense,” he tells Here & Now’s Robin Young. “But … every day, they have a chance to use the gun inappropriately. They have a chance, they get angry. They get scared.”
“If we don’t even have a minimum standard, not for training, but for performance validation for our law enforcement,” he says, “how in God’s name is anybody going to say, ‘Well, just because you have a gun in your pocket, you know how to use it in self-defense?’ You don’t.”
End quote
And some of the other stuff seems very biased:
The largest and most comprehensive survey of American gun owners ever conducted suggests that they use firearms in self-defense about 1.7 million times a year. It also confirms that AR-15-style rifles and magazines that hold more than 10 rounds, frequent targets of gun control legislation, are in common use for lawful purposes, which the Supreme Court has said is the test for arms covered by the Second Amendment.
The online survey, which was conducted by Centiment in February and March of 2021, was based on a representative sample of about 54,000 adults, 16,708 of whom were gun owners. Georgetown University political economist William English, who commissioned the survey as part of a book project, presents its major findings in a recent paper available on the Social Science Research Network.
End quote
I mean, a survey for owners of guns… Of course if you own a weapon like that, you will tell everyone that you use it for self defense. And probably enough people who say they did that, just lie…
I haven’t clicked his links, but assuming he’s linking you to the Harvard study, that study in an effort to debunk Kleck and Lott’s figures used by the CDC estimated “a more realistic DGU/yr at 100,000.” Well, being that there are 60,000 total gun deaths/yr in this country including suicide, I’m inclined to believe that based on the raw numbers they do in fact get used more for defense than to kill oneself or others, as 100k>60k.
This is a naive comparison, as you are not counting the many cases where people use guns to harm others without killing them. There are on the order of 500,000 fatal and nonfatal violent crimes involving a firearm committed every year in The United States.
No there are not. Stop making shit up.
I appreciate you challenging my numbers, but you’re not being very helpful finding actual sources. I found a report from the bureau of justice statistics that says 478,400 total cases of firearm violence in 2011. I see it trending upward from 2008-2011 as well, though that’s probably a consequence of the financial crisis.
Firearm violence = a firearm was involved. It doesn’t even have to be fired.
Literally firearms just being around in an altercation = firearm violence.
I haven’t seen anything corroborating those numbers, however even in that case if we include defensive display in our DGU numbers (which the Harvard study entirely discounted on the basis of “we have no real way of knowing those numbers,”) that raises the DGUs as well. Thing is defensive display is by far and wide the most likely defensive use, it is when a person is able to drive off the threat just by showing (drawing, pointing, etc) the firearm on/at the attacker. Harvard is right that there’s no way to get an accurate report on how many because they’re often not reported to the police, as that takes a lot of time and effort that could easily be shrugged off with a “eh I’m fine, didn’t have to fire, fuck it.” An example is this video. Though this clerk did likely report it especially given the accompanying video evidence, many in his position (especially not on the clock or camera) don’t report.
Some estimates of dgu/yr including those defensive displays are as high as 3mil/yr. I think that’s probably a little high, but I’d wager they’re in the ballpark of 500,000 dgu/yr as well.
Though this is the “we need more good people carrying able to defend themselves” part, because although the number is growing still only 25% of people carry, and even most of them don’t do it every day. Can’t defend with what you don’t have. Statista says there’s 1.2 mil violent crimes in 2022, if guns are indeed i .5mil of those, that leaves .7mil where a defender with a gun would have had an outright advantage over the attacker.
In the end what we need to do is address the underlying socioeconomic issues that most often cause the violent crime. Even if we Thanosed all guns away there’s still the matter of .7mil violent crimes and now 100,000-500,000 people can’t even do anything to protect themselves against them. Addressing the causes would have a more measurable impact and wouldn’t deprive anyone of their rights unduly.
100% agreed with you on that one. Unfortunately I don’t see any consensus coming on how to effectively do that.
Well it’ll be harder to do, for sure. But I think it’s the right way to do things, peace through force is a hollow victory at best.
Like I stated, I didn’t vet any of the links - they were the first results on DDG for “defensive gun use statistics.” My point was that you can’t make a statement like “owning guns causes more harm than it prevents” unless you can back it up with more than just a gut feeling. I also acknowledged the difficulty in getting exact numbers partially because of “conflicting motivations from each side citing their own numbers.”
More related reading from Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun_violence_in_the_United_States#Defensive_Gun_Violence
If we’re going to make factual declarations based solely on feelings then obviously the real problems with guns are caused by evil spirits corrupting our souls because we’ve strayed from God’s path.