WASHINGTON—In a trend that is reducing the nation’s dependence on fossil fuels by curtailing the total number of cars on the road, a study released Thursday by the Transportation Department found that more Americans than ever are commuting to work splattered on the grill of a Ford F-150. “Increasingly, U.S.…
@ajsadauskas @heatofignition @mondoman712
It also looks like the council plan for the Rouse Hills Shire indicates an 80% mode share for private vehicles. The single train station to downtown and infrequent buses are not getting people out of cars.
https://www.thehills.nsw.gov.au/files/sharedassets/public/ecm-website-documents/page-documents/building/plans-guidelines/integrated_transport_and_land_use_strategy.pdf
Additionally, it looks like despite transit investments the metro is predicted to still see a 67% car mode share by 2031
https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-08/Transport%20Modelling%20Report%20for%20Sydney.pdf
@owen @heatofignition @mondoman712 The Hills Shire document you’re looking at is from 2019.
Notice how the Metro is referred to in the future we tense? “We anticipate…”
Well, the NW Metro only opened in 2019: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metro_North_West_Line
And the figures you’re quoting are from before the Metro opened.
Which is why the train modal share is just 1%. People had to catch a bus or drive to somewhere like Epping or Parramatta to get a train. The Hills were a pretty notorious public transport blackspot before the NW Metro opened.
I don’t see the logic in saying it hasn’t led to a shift in modal share before it opened?
The final phases of that Metro project, called Metro City & Southwest, are opening this year and in 2025: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sydney_Metro_City_%26_Southwest
The NW Metro will also eventually connect with another Sydney Metro line to the new Western Sydney Airport. The first phase of that line is opening in 2026: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sydney_Metro_Western_Sydney_Airport
The second Infrastructure Australia report you linked to looks at the entire Sydney Metropolitan Area, not just northwest Sydney.
It’s like looking at overall modal share across the Greater New York metropolitan area to judge a new line in Brooklyn.
There are still public transport blackspots in Sydney. The Northern Beaches and the outer west are two prime examples.
@ajsadauskas @heatofignition @mondoman712
When do you expect transit to be sufficient to allow increasing gas prices? What do you think the Sydney mode share will be then?
@owen @heatofignition @mondoman712
“When do you expect transit to be sufficient to allow increasing gas prices?”
Probably sometime during the Fraser government, back in the 1980s.
So an important difference between Australia and the US is that the Australian Federal Government already has a national Fuel Excise Tax, as well as Goods and Services Tax on Fuel: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_taxes_in_Australia
But going back to the main point.
People can’t choose public transport over the car if the public transport system in the area isn’t up to scratch.
People on higher incomes can afford any increase to the cost of driving the most.
And they tend to live in the inner suburbs that have the best access to public transport.
It’s the working class people in the car-dependent outer suburbs — the western suburbs of Melbourne, Sydney, and Brisbane in particular — who are the least able to afford it.
And when you attempt to increase the cost of driving when there aren’t any good alternatives, you prompt a not-unjustified political backlash.
That political backlash is real. It’s why — for example — Australia no longer has a price on carbon.
And from a social policy standpoint, you effectively financially penalise people for being poor.
The reason why I cited the Northwest Metro is because it’s a great example of a rail service that’s better than driving for many trips. And it was built in an area that previously had quite poor access to public transport.
That means improving density along existing rail corridors, opening up new higher-density mixed-use developments along new rail corridors, and retrofitting high-frequency (every 10 minutes or greater) bus services to existing suburban areas.
Once good alternatives are in place, that’s when you ideally should take steps to make driving less attractive.
That can range from local interventions, such as pedestrianising streets and reducing the mandatory parking requirements in local planning codes.
It can potentially include congestion surcharges, parking taxes, etc.
And at a state or national level, increasing fuel excise, motor vehicles registration, stamp duty, etc.
@ajsadauskas @heatofignition @mondoman712
“Probably sometime during the Fraser government, back in the 1980s.”
Huh? So you are actually agreeing with me. You think Australia can increase its gas tax today?
"So an important difference between Australia and the US is that the Australian Federal Government already has a national Fuel Excise Tax, as well as Goods and Services Tax on Fuel: "
Also this isn’t a difference between Australia and the US. The US also has a federal gas tax.
@owen @heatofignition @mondoman712
“Also this isn’t a difference between Australia and the US. The US also has a federal gas tax.”
Okay, I stand corrected on this point.
But my core point remains.
Look at the oil price shocks of the 1970s, early 2000s, and two years ago.
Just increasing the price of driving alone doesn’t create sustained modal shifts, unless public transport and cycling are viable alternatives.
@ajsadauskas @heatofignition @mondoman712
I’m trying to engage charitably but it honestly feels like you keep ignoring my question. When can Australia raise gas prices more?
@owen @heatofignition @mondoman712 The really big missing piece of the puzzle in Australia — even the major capital cities — is the frequency of suburban bus services.
Here’s the timetable for a typical Melbourne suburban bus route: https://www.ptv.vic.gov.au/stop/15701/allambanan-drdorset-rd/2/bus/#StopPage:::datetime=2024-03-02T21%3A00%3A00.000Z&directionId=193&showAllDay=false&_auth=f308870091d891540e8a71291593644d70d97c0fb737e7cc29342c6a7802e96d
If you want to financially penalise people for driving, I think at a minimum you need to get that service up to a 10 minute all-day frequency.
Regional and rural transport services are another weak spot as well.
And I think you’re more likely to get the results you’re after if the increase in driving costs (however it’s implemented) comes either at the same time, or after services are improved to a reasonable standard.
@ajsadauskas @heatofignition @mondoman712
You keep ignoring my question which just confirms my suspicion that the answer is “never.”
If your answer is "only after every person in Australia has 10 minute transit service within a 15 minute walk (20 hours a day??), your practical answer is never. Because that will never happen.
And you haven’t even engaged with my point that you’re equity analysis is just vibes. You haven’t actually done any cost/benefit analysis.
@ajsadauskas @heatofignition @mondoman712
And your example is using a route with a toll! That is an example of the government hobbling driving.
I’m not saying we shouldn’t build transit. Or that it even should be a lower priority. I’m simply saying we should *also* raise the cost of driving because that impacts a lot of decisions, including the trade-off between using transit and driving as you demonstrated with your example.
@owen @heatofignition @mondoman712 The fastest alternative route is the M2 Hills Motorway, which was built as a tollway in 1997, in addition to all the existing roads in the area: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M2_Hills_Motorway
Building a new motorway isn’t hobbling congestion, it’s enabling it.
It was supposed to relieve congestion to northwest Sydney.
Well, there’s still traffic jams.
And even compared to a completely grade-separated dual carriageway six-lane motorway, the Metro is *still* faster during peak hour.