One bad debate is one thing but this was maybe the worst debate performance in history. And Biden’s polling was already quite bad prior to this. These polls show essentially no advantage in sticking with Biden, which is highly unusual for an incumbent. It’s likely to only be worse after the new information gets factored in.
That said, you’re right that we likely need all of the information from new polling to decide on the correct path. But if democrats are smart they are at a minimum setting up an alternative candidate at this point.
I haven’t seen that one but from what I’ve read, polling showed a similar level of disparity in performance—with about two thirds of viewers giving the edge to Trump and Reagan respectively. Also, the Reagan campaign had access to Carter’s debate prep notes so it was a bit of a unique circumstance.
Agreed. I’m not saying Biden should or shouldn’t drop out. I’m saying we’ll know more in a few days and everyone should calm down and also consider the downside risks. Even beyond basic horse race polling, we don’t know how voters would react to a replacement candidate instead of “generic Democrat.” Maybe someone like Whitmer solidifies Michigan but is unpopular with Georgia or Arizona voters for some reason. I have no idea at this point.
Unfortunately, a candidate dropping out like this is almost unheard of, so the downsides are pretty uncertain. Personally I think people are a little too worried about this but there certainly is some risk that what seems like a good candidate under casual examination ends up having some fatal flaw or hidden scandal.
One bad debate is one thing but this was maybe the worst debate performance in history. And Biden’s polling was already quite bad prior to this. These polls show essentially no advantage in sticking with Biden, which is highly unusual for an incumbent. It’s likely to only be worse after the new information gets factored in.
That said, you’re right that we likely need all of the information from new polling to decide on the correct path. But if democrats are smart they are at a minimum setting up an alternative candidate at this point.
This wasn’t as bad as Carter, but it definitely was bad.
I haven’t seen that one but from what I’ve read, polling showed a similar level of disparity in performance—with about two thirds of viewers giving the edge to Trump and Reagan respectively. Also, the Reagan campaign had access to Carter’s debate prep notes so it was a bit of a unique circumstance.
Agreed. I’m not saying Biden should or shouldn’t drop out. I’m saying we’ll know more in a few days and everyone should calm down and also consider the downside risks. Even beyond basic horse race polling, we don’t know how voters would react to a replacement candidate instead of “generic Democrat.” Maybe someone like Whitmer solidifies Michigan but is unpopular with Georgia or Arizona voters for some reason. I have no idea at this point.
Unfortunately, a candidate dropping out like this is almost unheard of, so the downsides are pretty uncertain. Personally I think people are a little too worried about this but there certainly is some risk that what seems like a good candidate under casual examination ends up having some fatal flaw or hidden scandal.