Trump campaign boosted in latest poll
www.thecentersquare.com
(The Center Square) – Newly released polling data may give fresh hope to the Trump campaign this week as Vice President Kamala Harris’ triumphant entry to the race fades and

Despite the good news for the Trump campaign, the polls have ebbed and flowed in this campaign.

Real Clear Politics’ polling average, which considers polls from as much as three weeks ago, shows all the swing states within the margin of error, making the race too close to call less than two months from election day.

  • ReallyActuallyFrankenstein@lemmynsfw.comEnglish
    4·
    2 months ago

    A New York Times/Siena poll released Monday shows Trump performing well in three key states, including a 5-point lead in the swing state of Arizona.

    The poll also showed Trump up by 2 points in North Carolina and up by 4 points in Georgia. Former President Joe Biden beat Trump in both Arizona and Georgia in 2020 by a narrow margin.

    The consistent rightward bump in these different states’ polls seems better explained by the commonality amongst them - the pollster, meaning a polling bias in the sample choices or methodology - rather than a change in Harris and Trump’s chances. But what do I know.

    • geekwithsoul@lemm.eeEnglish
      2·
      2 months ago

      Yeah, looking at the polls (mostly via Nate Silver’s site), I think the big blind spot in a lot of the polling is how they’re categorizing “likely voters”. Usually that’s considered much more accurate but after two presidential elections featuring uninspiring candidates (especially for the Dems), I think there’s a ton of voters who maybe didn’t vote in 2016 or 2020 but will turn out this year.

      Especially in the state polls, Harris seems to have a bigger lead when looking at registered voters and I think the usual “likely voter” polls are undercounting Dem support. I certainly don’t think she has it in the bag, but in areas that underperformed for Dems in the last two presidential elections, I think a lot of this years polls are undercounting Harris’ support.