Polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight has not had Kamala Harris as the favorite to win since October 17.

Summary

Polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight has named Vice President Kamala Harris as the narrow favorite to win the presidential race on Election Day, shifting from former President Donald Trump for the first time since October 17.

Harris’s lead is razor-thin, with FiveThirtyEight’s model showing her winning 50 out of 100 simulations compared to Trump’s 49. Similarly, Nate Silver’s model in The Silver Bulletin also slightly favors Harris, giving her a win in 50.015% of cases.

Both forecasts emphasize the unprecedented closeness of this race, with Pennsylvania as a key battleground.

  • floofloof@lemmy.caEnglish
    302·
    13 hours ago

    The headline is misleading.

    Out of 80,000 simulations, Harris won in 50.015 percent of cases, while Trump won in 49.65 percent of cases, per Silver’s model. Some 270 simulations resulted in a 269-269 Electoral College tie.

    So a better headline would be “Simulations show Harris and Trump are equally likely to win the election.” The difference between them is insignificant.

    And when you factor in all the underhand cheating tactics the Republicans have up their sleeve, the Democrats’ tendency to cave, and the Supreme Court’s bias, Trump looks a lot more likely to win than Harris.

    • Jo Miran@lemmy.ml
      7·
      13 hours ago

      So a better headline would be “Simulations show a high likelihood of political violence and another SCOTUS stolen election a la 2000”.