A level 5 rogue will quite probably have a thievery dc of 13, if they invest in it and max dex. The average lock has a dc of 25 and requires 4 successes. It takes a roll of 12 or better to have a single success, and will average about 9 rolls to rack up those 4 successes. With 9 rolls wherein you crit fail on a 2 or lower, the likelihood of breaking a pick is ~61%.
Should a level 5 rogue take a minute to open the average lock, and more likely than not break a pick in the process?
And let’s look at a good Lock: DC 30, requiring 5 successes. The level 5 rogue will only succeed on a 17, meaning it will take on average 20 attempts to get those 5 successes. On one attempt in a thousand our Lvl 5 rogue will open this lock before breaking a pick, and will typically break 3 in the process.
Am I missing something?
To me the time requirement looks fine. There is examples of super skilled people on YouTube who can pick good locks in less time than a round in pf, but they obviously are legendary.
My issue is the chance to break locks. That part seems unrealistic (even for a fantasy world) and it just add something to keep track of in a “video game” style.
My other issue is that from a gameplay perspective, if there is no ongoing fight and we are not in encounter mode, I don’t see at all the point to make so many rolls and require several successes. I would be more inclined to a system with a lower DC and where the difference between your roll and a dc determine the time you spend to open it. I am kind of homebrewing it this way in my campaign, but I was not very consistent with my ruling for this … I should think about it and write it somewhere.