India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, announced at G20, gives New Delhi new purchase in West Asia. But a lot will depend on delivery, and India’s economic performance
The spectacular G20 summit in New Delhi could be termed as India’s coming out party. Not dissimilar to the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing, which was widely seen as China’s grand message of “arrival”. Curiously, in many aspects of national power, China 2008 and India 2023 have several analogues – not least in aggregate GDP measures, where China 2007 and India 2022 are at very similar levels! Perhaps not entirely coincidentally, the biggest brass-tacks outcome of G20 was the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEE-EC). A multi-modal connectivity initiative to link India with Europe via ports and rail corridors built in the Middle East (ME). It will, in theory, provide an alternative to the current trade connectivity through the Suez Canal. In conception and design, it looks to be an alternative to China’s ambitious BRI. An Indian
BRI
(Boats and Rail Initiative) to challenge China’s BRI? Sounds compelling beyond the wordplay, especially as China’s BRI runs into rough weather, including in the Indian subcontinent, primarily on financial sustainability issues.
I don’t think rail can, or intends to be, cost-competitive with ocean freight. But it can be faster. There is already a railway line running from Yiwu in China to Madrid in Spain. Another connecting Russia to India and Iran is under construction. So clearly there is a market for rail freight.
What’s the traffic on those rail lines?
For Russia to India, it’s a matter of national security considering the other shortest routes pass through either Gibraltar of Istanbul… Both NATO.
Wikipedia says that 60 trains a week run between Shenzhen and Duisborg, citing a German source. The Russia-Iran-India route seems to have opened only last year.
Shortest sea route would be Rostov - Istanbul - Suez - India. Turkiye is a NATO member but has not blocked Russian civilian shipping.
That’s… higher than I expected, actually. However, even at 60 trains a week and 240 containers a train, that’s barely the throughput of a two container ships (20000-24000 TEU each, 3 week transit + random customs bullshit).
Right, so goods would fall on a spectrum from bulky and cheap (grain, cloth) to light but expensive (gold, jewels, high-end electronics). The first would go by ship, the second by train (or flight). The article said that Spain exports olive oil to China, and China exports electronics and automobiles to Europe.
Sure, that’s a fair point. But that’s not what IMEC is building. It makes this assumption that this 3-legged transit (ship from India-UAE, train from UAE-Israel, ship from Israel-Greece) would somehow be faster and/or cheaper than just going through the Suez. And, like, sure, let’s accept that premise. In what world does 5 days in a 30 day transit even matter? This isn’t cutting transit times down significantly because of port time loading/unloading and random customs bullshit.
I’m not entirely convinced that IMEC is financially viable. It could be more of a political decision - the UAE and Israel have good relations with India, and might provide a backup if for some reason Egypt blocks Suez to Indian ships. Also our current government has a habit of making somewhat exaggerated claims to create an impression that they are doing things.
That’s the thing, I really don’t think IMEC makes sense. At railroad capacity of 30 trains per day/240 containers per train, that’s about a third of a single container ship in throughput. The Suez canal can handle 50 ships each day easily.