Given the current state of partisan polarization, it’s unlikely Biden can get majority job approval next year even with the most fortunate set of circumstances. But the good news for him is that he probably doesn’t have to. Job-approval ratings are crucial indicators in a normal presidential reelection cycle that is basically a referendum on the incumbent’s record. Assuming Trump is the Republican nominee, 2024 will not be a normal reelection cycle for three reasons.
Because he’s winning the primaries now by some distance, it’s not illegal for him to run from prison and at least one state court has already decided that he did engage in an insurrection but that that doesn’t disqualify him either.