The Russian President has approved a record budget increase of around 30% for military spending in 2024, reaching 36.6 trillion rubles (€376.7 billion).
I don’t think he could do 30 mil. His army is only about 3 million personnel including reservists per wikipedia, and AFU is claiming to have liquidated nearly 10% that many. Military theory is that an army loses all combat efficacy at around 30-40% casualties, and the rate of Russian casualties per day has gone up very significantly. After Russia spent all those lives in WWII, their demographics are still not what they used to be.
Despite the fact that they’re paying troops so much to fight, it’s not clear to me that they can sustain these losses indefinitely. What we’re really seeing here is whether Putin’s “military Keynesianism” can overcome Russia’s demographic collapse. Experts are already saying Russia could not mount an invasion of this scale again for the foreseeable future.
I think they’re going to end up as a failed state in the long run whether or not they succeed in Ukraine. The resistance would metastasize into an insurgency.
I don’t think he could do 30 mil. His army is only about 3 million personnel including reservists per wikipedia, and AFU is claiming to have liquidated nearly 10% that many. Military theory is that an army loses all combat efficacy at around 30-40% casualties, and the rate of Russian casualties per day has gone up very significantly. After Russia spent all those lives in WWII, their demographics are still not what they used to be.
Despite the fact that they’re paying troops so much to fight, it’s not clear to me that they can sustain these losses indefinitely. What we’re really seeing here is whether Putin’s “military Keynesianism” can overcome Russia’s demographic collapse. Experts are already saying Russia could not mount an invasion of this scale again for the foreseeable future.
I think they’re going to end up as a failed state in the long run whether or not they succeed in Ukraine. The resistance would metastasize into an insurgency.