U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that while Ukraine has recaptured half the territory that Russia initially seized in its invasion, Kyiv faced "a very hard fight" to win back more.
I think the play needs to be a stalemate/slow advance until Putin dies. His successor will either accelerate or withdraw imo. Can’t bleed resources like that forever and remain in power, Putin is grandfathered in but the new guy won’t be. Unfortunately Putin could die tomorrow or in ten years. Hopefully it’s sooner than later.
Out of curiosity, what exactly are you expecting to happen when Putin dies exactly? Do you realize that Putin is basically a moderate in Russia at this point. You think somebody like Kadyrov or Medvedev is going to have a more moderate policy?
Ukraine definitely has political stability and morale as good advantages. They’re also continually getting additional military support as time goes on.
True, Russia has run out of prisoners, Wagner is gone, Chechens are disengaging, Belarus is s clear “no”, and the rest of the population is unwilling and getting restless.
The Kremlin is too scared to even call it a war, let alone try widespread mobilization. They saw how Prigozhin waltz into Rostov-On-Don and act like a celebrity.
I think the play needs to be a stalemate/slow advance until Putin dies. His successor will either accelerate or withdraw imo. Can’t bleed resources like that forever and remain in power, Putin is grandfathered in but the new guy won’t be. Unfortunately Putin could die tomorrow or in ten years. Hopefully it’s sooner than later.
Out of curiosity, what exactly are you expecting to happen when Putin dies exactly? Do you realize that Putin is basically a moderate in Russia at this point. You think somebody like Kadyrov or Medvedev is going to have a more moderate policy?
Ukraine definitely has political stability and morale as good advantages. They’re also continually getting additional military support as time goes on.
Not sure there will be enough people left to fight…
True, Russia has run out of prisoners, Wagner is gone, Chechens are disengaging, Belarus is s clear “no”, and the rest of the population is unwilling and getting restless.
The Kremlin is too scared to even call it a war, let alone try widespread mobilization. They saw how Prigozhin waltz into Rostov-On-Don and act like a celebrity.
I meant Ukraine but yeah I think Russia also has personnel issues.