First guy’s at least approaching a coherent point.
You could do a lot worse than the sort of Mike Duncan thesis that revolutions only happen when a country’s leadership has completely failed in some major way. Even if you are some weird Russian monarchist, why would you like the guy who completely failed during the Russo-Japanese war, was doing an awful job managing World War 1, and then got his shit wrecked by a bunch of scrappy communists.
Someone pay me to talk about trains for 8 hours at a time please.