• 3 Posts
  • 43 Comments
Joined 11 months ago
cake
Cake day: August 2nd, 2023

help-circle



  • It looks like it’s all orchestrated by Iran. Hezbollah, under Iran control, Hamas and Yemeni rebels. Hamas shooting at Israel in a way that they clearly knew would necessitate a massive response. What I’m wondering is what they gain from this. Perhaps solidarity from other powers in the Middle East, causing hatred of Israel? I’m also wondering if this is all covering action for China to tie down the US while China attempts to take Taiwan. We might be living through what in the future textbooks will be under the heading of factors leading up to.

















  • Yeah indeed strategic ambiguity has been the approach they’ve taken so far. If they decided to they could change the approach though. I think it’s unlikely China would carry out the threat if a formal alliance was actually announced since in that case they’d be starting a world war. I think it’s more likely they’d express outrage, protest and perhaps fly some fighter jets over Taiwan, take some steps short of actual war. My worry is that if the situation remains ambiguous China might conclude that the security guarantees are not real and that US would not respond. Having strong credibility there is essential for maintaining peace I think, especially if the intention is to actually respond.