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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: June 12th, 2023

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  • If I recall correctly, he had the x.com domain and tried to rebrand PayPal to X. The board went, “are you a fucking idiot?” and replace him with Peter Thiel.

    He’s been trying to call stuff “X” since he was an edgy teenager. He just never had the good sense to grow out of it, and he fell ass backward into enough money that we all get to watch him go all “Star Wars kid” over and over again in public.



  • I will say, the internet in 1998 looked nothing like the internet today. There was barely any commerce at all. 1998 is maybe the year you’d start to say that Amazon “made it”, but even then the common take from established reporters was that they’d never be able to compete with brick and mortar booksellers like Barnes and Noble. To the extent that the average person was even aware that you could buy things on the internet, it was mostly because they’d heard that it was dangerous to use your credit card online.

    At the time, the web was still pretty small. Google launched in 1998 – prior to that Yahoo was the most popular “search engine”, but Yahoo was mostly a human-curated list of web pages organized by topic. Windows 95 was still what most people used, and it didn’t even come with a TCP/IP stack enabled.

    Certainly not a brilliant prediction, but it’s hindsight that takes it from “pretty mediocre take” to “comically stupid”.







  • I don’t think it’s a problem of not learning the lesson. The problem is that you can’t succeed in making a social network if you ask anyone to pay in any way. You need it to be useful, which means you need everyone on it, and everyone won’t be on it if it costs anything or is otherwise gated behind even the smallest of hurdles. So rich VCs come in and say, “here’s $100,000,000 to go make this thing invaluable, and then I want my money back with a handsome profit”. Everyone in the game always knows that the product is going to get shitty when it comes time to pay the piper. Being shitty is a side-effect of making money. The gamble is that it’ll be so ingrained in people’s life than they’ll begrudging eat the shit to keep using it. They’re looking for the elbow in the curve – how shitty can it be before everyone abandons it. That spot of maximum shittiness isn’t a mistake – it’s the target.