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Cake day: May 4th, 2024

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  • I meant actual numbers in regards to my last comment (the one you previously replied to) since I was just basing that one on calculations I did like a year ago. So now I made another comment where I used actual numbers instead of just roughly writing my conclusion from a year ago. It was not directed at your comment, sorry for the misunderstanding.

    And I’m using low mileage per year because as I stated in the comment before this is about my situation, about if an EV is practical for me or if I’m forced to wait until they’re getting cheaper. Currently I’m at around 5000 km per year, I use public transport a lot (and am not expecting that to change anytime soon).

    Also the price per kWh is the average price per kWh in my area and is roughly the average I’m getting (I think I have 0.17€ rn since it’s cheaper in summer but I also had 0.42€ already in winter so 0.2€ average really isn’t high).

    Battery replacement rate is based on this (first search result for ev battery degradation):

    At the average degradation rate of 2.3% per year, an EV battery would take 15 years to decline to 70% maximum charge. However, as we expect EV battery life to decline non-linearly, there would likely be a more significant drop-off as the battery ages.

    This means the battery is at 80% capacity after 10 years, which already drops the range below 300 km in winter for not insanely expensive EV. I do not have first hand experience on how many years a battery lasts, but even if it lasts 20 years (63% with this formula, although they do state that it’s expected to decline quicker after longer usage, and current EVs wouldn’t get my minimum 300 km winter range anymore) I’m still at break even point when buying a new battery after those 20 years.

    That’s why I’m holding off for now and just continue driving my reliable 25 year old Skoda, hoping for EV to become cheaper soon (all it takes is a new battery technology… the battery is why EVs are so expensive rn).

    And your source is calculating with prices from 2019. Before COVID, before the Russo-Ukrainian war. I’m using numbers from this year.


  • Alright, time to do actual numbers.

    18.000 is heavily influenced by all the people driving >100.000 km per year, unless that’s the median, not the average. I’m far below 10.000 and still waiting for it to be worth it for me. I’ll calculate with 10.000 for now.

    Modern ICE cars need far less than 6l. A modern VW Golf for example only needs 4-5 l per 100 km (4.5 avg, and yes it actually is that low, I’ve been driving a modern VW Golf at the military a few times and have tracked my average fuel consumption there).

    Gas currently fluctuates from 1.525 to 1.599 in my area, so I’m always only filling the car on Monday mornings when it’s 1.525.

    10 000 * 1.525 * 4.5/100 = 686.25€ per year.

    Even if there’s a major crisis like when the war in Ukraine started and the price goes up to 2€ per liter for some time and I’m at 1.8€ average for the year (I have never had such a high average so this is really stretching it), we get 10 000 * 1.8 * 4.5/100 = 810€ per year. Worst case, never happened before scenario.

    Economic modern EV need ~16 kWh per 100 km. The average price per kWh at home is 0.2€ in my area.

    10 000 * 0.2 * 20/100 = 400€ per year.

    = 286.25€ (410€ worst case) per year saved (purely for moving the car), assuming I always charge at home. If I do longer trips on holidays and have to charge somewhere else that gap gets lower.

    Even when adding less taxes, less repairs (but modern engines really don’t need much repairing, even though they’re much more complex than electric motors and wasting more energy) it will still will take a long time to break equal (probably never because I need a new battery before breaking equal).

    If I have an average of 10k km per year that’s 16.200€ for 200.000 km over 20 years with an ICE car at 1.8€/l (higher average than I’ve ever experienced) or 6.400€ for the same with an electric car at 0.2€/kWh (which is below my average of the last two years). Ignoring inflation for simplicity, just assume my salary goes up with inflation so percentually it stays the same.

    If I need a new battery (10.000€, actually more but I’ll just say 10.000 for now since they’ll likely go down at some point) every 10 years then I’m just about to break equal after 20 years, right before going negative again by buying another battery.


    • Yes, but you have to drive a lot to make up for the price. Dropping from 10€ per 100 km to 5€ per 100 km and slightly less maintenance cost (modern Diesel motors - and by modern I mean the last few decades, given that the motor has been treated well - are pretty carefree already) takes a long time to pay off. If you drive 10.000 km per year that’ll save you 500€ per year + minor maintenance savings, but you pay 10.000+ € more when buying the car. For electric motorcycles it’s even less notable since they need less fuel.

    • Lifespan also is difficult to evaluate. I’m currently using a 25 year old Skoda Octavia and it’s still causing no problems and I still could resell it for 3000-4000€. When driving an EV for 20+ years you’ll very likely have to replace the battery, probably twice (easily 10.000€ with current batteries every time you need a new one).

    • Another point: Resell value. Due to battery degradation and especially very quick technological advancements EVs tend to lose their value quicker than fuel powered vehicles.

    I really want to buy an EV but it just doesn’t make sense yet. Give me an EV that’s not wasting any money on fancy screens, excessively good speakers, … with like 300 km of effective uphill range for a reasonable price and I’m in.



  • Those two were always mixed. Majorly German but still mixed. Most importantly they never were their own culture, just part of a bigger culture. And they weren’t cultural core regions.

    North Tyrol and South Tyrol, even when ignoring their well over a thousand year old ties with Austria and going back to a time before Austria existed, have always been one culture, united. I guess you could compare it to taking Latium (the region around Rome), splitting it in two parts, choosing one part and making it let’s say French, forcing everyone there to be French, trying to replace local culture, cuisine, language, clothes, festivities etc. with their French equivalent, telling people that it has always been French, etc. Not sure if North Latium and South Latium are as close culturally as North Tyrol and South Tyrol, but I suppose so and at least they’re an Italian cultural core region and have been for ages so at least in that regard they’re comparable.

    (Except the people there would have a harder time resisting since they can’t hide as easily as in the mountains, so chances for success would be higher.)

    And that’s not even considering that the cultural gap between Tyrol (typical Alpine culture) and Italy is much bigger than between for example the Provence and Latium (both maritime).


  • Read some speeches from Cicero for example (in Latin). Latin has six cases and three genders so while Cicero’s sentences often consist of multiple sentences and sub sentences with beautifully spread out sentence structures they’re still very clear and easy to understand (with sufficient Latin skills). Same for all modern languages with cases and genders (like German).

    In English you only have one gender more or less (you do have he she it but in terms of referring to previous words (which, etc.) or linking attributes you only have one) and the case solely depends on where the word stands in the structure (leading to a fixed sentence structure and limited possibilities to refer back to previous words, so you have to repeat them more commonly).


  • At the time it was annexed (after ww1) it was about 99% German, 1% Ladinian and 0% Italian (obviously, since it never was affiliated with Italy), so they had to try really hard to change that. To do that, they created Italian names for all places (ironically English-speaking people typically use the Italian names nowadays that haven’t even existed before), made the native language illegal, made the native culture partly illegal, taught alternative history in school (saying it always was that way and it just was a missing part of Italy despite having been Tyrol for over a thousand years), deporting the native population to Germany, etc. Fascism doing fascism things.

    After Italian fascism ended in 1945 it got better, but it took until the 70s for South Tyrol to gain autonomy in most regards and for the native population to gain back their rights. And that also only happened because of a lot of protesting (going as far as blowing things up).

    The result of all: Still >70% German, a few % Ladinian, rest Italian. But it would’ve been different if they hadn’t had as much support (from North Tyrol for example) and if it wasn’t mountainous (that really helps with doing things secretly that have been made illegal.

    Now that less and less people still are here who have experienced fascist oppression it’s our task to ensure that it isn’t forgotten, forgetting fascism’s crimes is the first step towards the return of fascism. Right-wing populist parties are becoming stronger again all over Europe right now, and a few of them have been downplaying fascist crimes already - which wouldn’t even be possible if everyone was well informed.

    (Btw it already was a widely controversial topic back then - on one side the UK had promised Italy that they’d get South Tyrol (among other areas, some that they also got and some that they didn’t get because of mainly USA’s concerns) if they joined their side in the war, on the other the USA for example saw the problems that’d be coming with annexing a culturally and historically 100% different region (and trying to replace the native culture) and was firmly against it)