“All the state leaders should be getting their people out … to watch for ballot stuffing,” wrote the leader of the American Patriots Three Percent militia. “Our nation depends on this."
I really should as well. I’m insanely depressed about it all. It really feels absolutely hopeless.
Everyone still needs to vote, but I’m convinced they won’t even need to ratfuck this one. I really believe he’s just going to outright win if the polls are the same kind of fucked as they have been for the last decade… Midterm polling is more accurate, but any poll with Trump on it seems to be wayyyy inaccurate :(
On the flip side, Trump was overestimated in the Republican primaries this year. Pollsters have dramatically altered their polling this year in ways that are going to be more favorable to trump this year.
For instance, about 2/3rd of polls are now using recall polling which has historically not been used by pollsters because it tend to overstate the losing party of the election and underestimate the winners. Even non-recall polls have made changes like much more heavily sampling rural voters. Not to mention that the numbers of polls from partisian republican pollsters has been increasing which skews polling averages
Could he still be underestimated with all those changes, maybe, but at the same time I wouldn’t assume that’s anything given
I really should as well. I’m insanely depressed about it all. It really feels absolutely hopeless.
Everyone still needs to vote, but I’m convinced they won’t even need to ratfuck this one. I really believe he’s just going to outright win if the polls are the same kind of fucked as they have been for the last decade… Midterm polling is more accurate, but any poll with Trump on it seems to be wayyyy inaccurate :(
Highly encourage turning that election anxiety into action
Find opportunities to volunteer for dems around you and online
Write letters to voters in swing states or in competitive downballot races
On the flip side, Trump was overestimated in the Republican primaries this year. Pollsters have dramatically altered their polling this year in ways that are going to be more favorable to trump this year.
For instance, about 2/3rd of polls are now using recall polling which has historically not been used by pollsters because it tend to overstate the losing party of the election and underestimate the winners. Even non-recall polls have made changes like much more heavily sampling rural voters. Not to mention that the numbers of polls from partisian republican pollsters has been increasing which skews polling averages
Could he still be underestimated with all those changes, maybe, but at the same time I wouldn’t assume that’s anything given
It’s almost like the professional pollsters are also aware of all these common knowledge facts and try to correct.