WASHINGTON, May 18 (Reuters) - Several top White House aides say they are confident protests across U.S. college campuses against Israel’s offensive in Gaza will not translate into significantly fewer votes for Joe Biden in November’s election, despite polls showing many Democrats are deeply unhappy about the president’s policy on the war.
The White House optimism on the issue, which is shared by many in the Biden campaign, runs contrary to dire warnings from some Democratic strategists and youth organizers who warn misjudging the situation could cost Biden votes in a tight race with Republican rival Donald Trump.
I think the #1 problem is defining “youth voter” as 18-29.
College age is 18-24, but I don’t see anything looking specifically at that demographic.
For 18-29:
https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/state-state-youth-voter-turnout-data-and-impact-election-laws-2022
“Nationally, CIRCLE estimates that 23% of eligible young Americans cast a ballot in the 2022 midterm elections.”
Now, problem #1, that’s a mid-term election which always draws lower voter participation.
2nd is looking at 18-29 instead of 18-24.
https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2023/12/05/young-americans-harvard-poll-trump-biden
“The U.S. Census Bureau estimated 54.1% of 18- to 29-year-olds voted in 2020, which had the highest youth turnout overall of any election in the 21st century.”
There is a huge difference between 18 and and 29, so it is odd that they lump all of them together.
As a “youth vote”. My 28 year old kid and his 29 year old wife haven’t been in school in years now.