A good summary. I think the key factor is that Russia has massive artillery superiority along with the ability to produce shells in the necessary quantities. Something like 80% of the casualties come from artillery fire, so that’s clearly by far the most dominant factor in the whole war.
It’s also worth noting that Ukraine is forced to act very predictably because they have to worry about media perception. This allows Russia to draw Ukraine into cauldrons like Artemovsk, Avidevka, and Volchansk, where Ukraine has no choice but to keep feeding its best forces into losing battles.
I expect that the war will end with the collapse of the Ukrainian army. As motivated and trained people become increasingly replaced with conscripts who have no interest in fighting, the professional core of the army becomes eroded. Eventually there will be an inflection point where there just aren’t enough professional soldiers to hold the whole thing together, and the collapse will be very rapid once that point is reached.
A good summary. I think the key factor is that Russia has massive artillery superiority along with the ability to produce shells in the necessary quantities. Something like 80% of the casualties come from artillery fire, so that’s clearly by far the most dominant factor in the whole war.
It’s also worth noting that Ukraine is forced to act very predictably because they have to worry about media perception. This allows Russia to draw Ukraine into cauldrons like Artemovsk, Avidevka, and Volchansk, where Ukraine has no choice but to keep feeding its best forces into losing battles.
I expect that the war will end with the collapse of the Ukrainian army. As motivated and trained people become increasingly replaced with conscripts who have no interest in fighting, the professional core of the army becomes eroded. Eventually there will be an inflection point where there just aren’t enough professional soldiers to hold the whole thing together, and the collapse will be very rapid once that point is reached.