So the situation for Karabakh and Armenia in general looks dire right now. There have been reports of more Azeri military equipment being moved and gathered along the border, which most likely is coordinated with Turkey and the Russians must also be aware since Erdogan and Putin met and one of the issues they must’ve discussed is the situation in Karabakh. From what I understand Turkey and Azerbaijan are doing everything they can to make sure Iran and Russia won’t have a problem with further military action from Azerbaijan as a way to force Armenia for further concessions, because they have done it before and it works every time. Turkey and Azerbaijan are also big into military cooperation and integration, basically making it a single army trained by Turkish NATO officers. Russia also desperately wants our PM Pashinyan to resign ever since the “velvet revolution” when he came to power and kicked out the previous more Russia aligned people. The 2020 war loss didn’t kick Pashinyan out, but a total loss of Karabakh and ethnic cleansing might do it. I think the Russians in general, just like with Ukraine, don’t really see Armenia as a sovereign state, because we’re too small and can’t really defend ourselves against much more resource rich and bigger population having neighbours, and if you can’t stay true to your so called “red lines” then any talk of sovereignty and independent position is null and void.

Politically, both the west and Russia at this point are more than happy to let Azerbaijan have Karabakh because they keep reiterating that in fact it was Armenia who acknowledged the territory as part of Azerbaijan, without giving any historical context as to why it may be a bad idea to hand people over to a country which in the late 80s was committing pogroms against them and outright denies the Armenian genocide as a hoax. Azerbaijan also has close ties with Israel lately and gets weapons from there as they did in 2020, but the most valuable thing is perhaps their approach to ethnic cleansing, they are learning from the best the way Gazaification of Karabakh is going. The Aliyev regime knows full well that Armenians will never trust them, especially when in 2020 innocent civilians in Karabakh were being beheaded and one of their heads ended up being used by 2 Azeri soldiers as a football.

The problem with much of western analysis of the conflict is that it focuses solely on Karabakh without talking about Armenia itself. Last year around this time Azerbaijan attacked and took positions in Armenia proper, but idiotic and corrupt publications such as the BBC were talking about Karabakh when it had nothing to do with it. In general there is absolutely no attention being paid to the words of Azerbaijani officials (EU politicians love bribes and gas contracts) when they say that they want a corridor through Armenia to their Nakhichevan enclave (or even wilder fantasies where the whole of Armenia is ancient Azeri land), but such a thing was never approved or discussed with Armenia and only came to be after the war where Armenia was already weak and they knew they could push for further concessions. One of the big reasons for military action would be to forcefully open that road since we don’t want to discuss it without also including the issue of safety guarantees for the 120k people trapped in Karabakh. Oh and they already made and flag and are claiming southern Armenia (where I’m from) as also part of their territory, so this opening of a corridor can very much be a way to isolate the south and make it easier to attack.

Lastly, my forecast is that Armenians in Karabakh will soon really start starving and within the next month or two maximum we will see more military action from Azerbaijan. They will succeed in their blackmail, our hapless PM will fall to his knees in front of the west for security guarantees, but of course nothing will be given or guaranteed and instead we will be given a table by the french where they go “please guys don’t fight let’s talk about it, BOTH SIDES BOTH SIDES!!!”. What’s more insane is that Armenia the other day sent humanitarian aid to Ukraine, which is extra funny given that Ukraine has far closer ties to Azerbaijan and they were cheering on Azerbaijan when in 2020 they “got their land back”. This just goes to show the absolute desperate state that we’re in, where you can’t really ask anything from anyone, you’re just a ball being kicked around.

If I do go to the army (90% chance) they will most likely send me to the border every other month, which basically amounts to 9 months at the border (18 months minus basic training). The Russian “peacekeeping” force has a contract until 2025 which means I’m definitely going to be there when shit hits the fan. What’s more scary is that in the last year out of 50 deaths in the army only 13 were from the enemy, the rest are soldiers and commanders murdering one another because they have access to guns, no one can snitch on anyone (criminal/mafia mentality) and all these deaths get counted as suicide and none of the parents so far have been able to do anything to bring justice. Sorry for the long post, but ye, fun times ahead.