The reason is that the door that gets opened is not random, so they are not two independent events.
There is a 66% chance that one of the doors you have not chosen has the car behind it. By showing you which one of the doors does not have the car the host effectively transfers all of that 66% chance to the one door.
Edit: that means the choice should be to switch, not stay, doesn’t it? Either the student was wrong to stay or I have it completely arse about.
Edit 2 - yeah, Googled to confirm, you should switch.
The reason is that the door that gets opened is not random, so they are not two independent events.
There is a 66% chance that one of the doors you have not chosen has the car behind it. By showing you which one of the doors does not have the car the host effectively transfers all of that 66% chance to the one door.
Edit: that means the choice should be to switch, not stay, doesn’t it? Either the student was wrong to stay or I have it completely arse about.
Edit 2 - yeah, Googled to confirm, you should switch.
The student just wanted the goat
Fair enough, goats are cool.
agree
the element that is not explained is that the door the student/contestant picks is ** never ** removed, so the odds for each door is different
( I misquoted the movie, corrected now )