The primary will almost certainly be de facto decided by the end of March. There’s a good chance it will be de facto over by mid February, if any candidate dominates the early states.
Of the 2467 delegates up, 1250 of them will have been distributed by March 12. Republicans rules on delegate distribution heavily favor the candidate in the lead as well. No primaries/caucuses have been scheduled yet after March 12, but expect the bulk of the remainder to be in the other half of March and all of April.
The primary is all but certain to be over by May 2024.
And I’m sure they’re all banking on Trump to win so they can pull the “you can’t run a major court trial with a presidential nominee as the defendant” card.
Trump could clench the nomination in March, then get disqualified from running in May. The GOP will have to slap together a quick Desantis, Pence, or Cruz campaign with zero cash, while Trump fights the disqualification in the appellate courts.
An interesting thought, and completely unrelated to the May trial, but it’s possible that the upcoming J6 indictment could include certain conspiracy charges that would prohibit holding office if convicted. I think the timing of that trial will be more important.
It’s worse: If Trump is the nominee you just know he’s going to spend all the campaign dollars on lawyers for his various trials. He’ll do his usual tour of the states doing his rallies but exactly zero dollars will make their way to downstream candidates. He’s going to cost them the presidency, the house, and the senate.
I think this lines up with the primary schedule so that should make this an interesting affair.
All the better to claim the DOJ is interfering with elections. Ug. I just threw up a little in my mouth.
That was out of the bottle since 2016
Kinda right smack-dab in the middle. Perfect set up to allow a convicted felon to be a major party nominee
The primary will almost certainly be de facto decided by the end of March. There’s a good chance it will be de facto over by mid February, if any candidate dominates the early states.
Of the 2467 delegates up, 1250 of them will have been distributed by March 12. Republicans rules on delegate distribution heavily favor the candidate in the lead as well. No primaries/caucuses have been scheduled yet after March 12, but expect the bulk of the remainder to be in the other half of March and all of April.
The primary is all but certain to be over by May 2024.
And I’m sure they’re all banking on Trump to win so they can pull the “you can’t run a major court trial with a presidential nominee as the defendant” card.
Trump could clench the nomination in March, then get disqualified from running in May. The GOP will have to slap together a quick Desantis, Pence, or Cruz campaign with zero cash, while Trump fights the disqualification in the appellate courts.
How would he be disqualified? A candidate could run a campaign from prison if he or she wanted to.
An interesting thought, and completely unrelated to the May trial, but it’s possible that the upcoming J6 indictment could include certain conspiracy charges that would prohibit holding office if convicted. I think the timing of that trial will be more important.
Possible but unlikely. I really hope so though or why do we even have the laws?
Oh no, won’t anyone think of the poor fasc-err… republicans!
It’s worse: If Trump is the nominee you just know he’s going to spend all the campaign dollars on lawyers for his various trials. He’ll do his usual tour of the states doing his rallies but exactly zero dollars will make their way to downstream candidates. He’s going to cost them the presidency, the house, and the senate.
At least I hope so.
He wouldn’t be disqualified from running. He can run from prison if he wanted to. (Barf)