1.) Russia is not conceding any territory they currently control. And Crimea is about as much in play as St. Petersburg.
2.) Russia will not accept Ukraine being allowed into any military alliance with NATO, and will not accept them being a member.
Russia does not need to budge an inch on those two points because they are winning and outside of NATO getting involved and starting WW3, Russia will only be making gains, not losses.
Edit: want to add a comment about this comment
Europe is all talk about picking up the slack
This might be true in the very near term. The problem is the Euro population seems to be increasingly fed up with it all and I don’t see that trend reversing. If Le Pen wins the presidency in France on a campaign of ending support for Ukraine; and if AfD picks up a ton of seats on a similar platform; and various parties in smaller countries do likewise… how long do you think that support will last?
There’s nothing I disagree with in your comment but I would be cautious on placing bets on the actions of fascists like Le Pen and AfD.
I think history shows that fascists are ideological windvanes and the absolute worst type of opportunists, so I’d keep an open mind about the potential for them back flipping on election platforms and policy because if an opportunity presents itself then they’re likely to grasp it with both hands, even if it means contradicting themselves and breaking promises.
There’s every chance that your assessment is correct but fascists can be surprisingly unpredictable, especially in their nascent form like we’re seeing in Europe today.
Fuck I hope that we aren’t going to see this play out either way though. I’d much prefer to live in a world where this discussion remains squarely in the realms of speculation.
1.) Russia is not conceding any territory they currently control. And Crimea is about as much in play as St. Petersburg.
2.) Russia will not accept Ukraine being allowed into any military alliance with NATO, and will not accept them being a member.
Russia does not need to budge an inch on those two points because they are winning and outside of NATO getting involved and starting WW3, Russia will only be making gains, not losses.
Edit: want to add a comment about this comment
This might be true in the very near term. The problem is the Euro population seems to be increasingly fed up with it all and I don’t see that trend reversing. If Le Pen wins the presidency in France on a campaign of ending support for Ukraine; and if AfD picks up a ton of seats on a similar platform; and various parties in smaller countries do likewise… how long do you think that support will last?
Feels like everything could start world war 3 right now.
There’s nothing I disagree with in your comment but I would be cautious on placing bets on the actions of fascists like Le Pen and AfD.
I think history shows that fascists are ideological windvanes and the absolute worst type of opportunists, so I’d keep an open mind about the potential for them back flipping on election platforms and policy because if an opportunity presents itself then they’re likely to grasp it with both hands, even if it means contradicting themselves and breaking promises.
There’s every chance that your assessment is correct but fascists can be surprisingly unpredictable, especially in their nascent form like we’re seeing in Europe today.
Fuck I hope that we aren’t going to see this play out either way though. I’d much prefer to live in a world where this discussion remains squarely in the realms of speculation.
Russia wasn’t going to accept Finland and Sweeden’s entries either. Russia doesn’t get a choice in the matter.