Pastaguini [he/him]

  • 2 Posts
  • 30 Comments
Joined 4 years ago
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Cake day: October 18th, 2020

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  • I think he’s definitely toast with any voters under 25. Beyond that it gets a bit harder to say. I think he’s definitely wildly unpopular with most folks under 45 but they might just vote for him to vote against Trump. It comes down to whether people view their vote as a personal endorsement of a candidate, in which case they won’t vote for him, or as a defense against Trump, in which case they will not. If I had to guess today, I’d say Biden wins the popular vote by a slimmer margin than what Hillary won by in 2016 but then loses the electoral college because of lower turnout in the same key states that Hillary lost.

    I’m still not totally convinced that the democrats care too much about winning. You’d think they would wait a few months until after the election to discuss stuff like the Tik tok ban or even additional funds to Israel. It really feels like they’re looking for ways to self sabotage so we get trump, at which point they’ll blame the left/young people. We’ll see what these next few months look like.













  • No. I think a lot more people on the right were excited about him when he was an unknown quantity. Now that they’ve seen him in office and none of what they wanted happened (no wall, no Hillary arrest) a lot of the energy has diffused and the election is going to be decided by middle - upper class suburban whites who crave normalcy. I lived in Florida in 2016 and everywhere you looked there were trump flags, trump merchandise, etc. I just drove across the country and saw like three trump signs, one in Indiana, one in Kansas, and one in Colorado, and the one in Colorado just said, “thank you for trying to make our country great again”. Loser shit. The energy just isn’t there.

    Also consider the shifting demographics. A lot of older people who tend to vote republican died of Covid these last few years while a lot of young people who grew up on anti-trump media and naturally skew left are entering voting age. There are some right wing young people but not a ton, especially compared to previous generations.

    We might not have another republican president for a few election cycles. I think when we eventually do, it’ll be a young, savvy politician who doesn’t talk about culture war stuff as much but “just wants to keep taxes low and put America first”, like a further right Pete buttigieg. The current strategy of latching into divisive culture war stuff isn’t working. They want to recreate 2016 but 2016 was such a one in a million aligning of specific conditions that it’s unlikely to work again, even with bidens falling approval ratings due to unpopular support of Israel.