Image is of container ships waiting outside the canal. While there is usually some number of ships waiting for passage, the number has increased significantly lately.

In order to move ships through the Panama Canal, water is needed to fill the locks. The water comes from freshwater lakes, which are replenished by rainfall. This rainfall hasn’t been coming, and Lake Gatun, the largest one, is at near record low levels.

Hundreds of ships are now in a maritime traffic jam, unable to cross the canal quickly. Panama is attempting to conserve water and have reduced the number of transits by 20% per day, among other measures. The Canal’s adminstrators have warned that these drought conditions will remain for at least 10 months.

It is unlikely that global supply chains will be catastrophically affected, at least this year. Costs may increase for consumers in the coming months, especially for Christmas, but by and large goods will continue to flow, around South America if need be. Nonetheless, projecting trends over the coming years and decades, you can imagine how this is yet another nudge by climate change towards dramatic economic, environmental, and political impacts on the world at large. It also might prompt discussions inside various governments about nearshoring, and the general vulnerability of global supply chains - especially as the United States tries, bafflingly, to go to war with China.

After some discussion in the last megathread about building knowledge of geopolitics, some of us thought it might be an interesting idea to have a Country of the Week - essentially, I/we choose a country and then people can come in here and chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants, related to that country. More detail in this comment.

Here is the map of the Ukraine conflict, courtesy of Wikipedia.

Okay, look, I got a little carried away. Monday’s update usually covers the preceding Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, but I went ahead and did all of last week. If people like a more weekly structure then I might try that instead, if not, then I’ll go back to the Mon-Wed-Fri schedule.

Links and Stuff

The bulletins site is down.

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists

Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Add to the above list if you can.

Resources For Understanding The War

Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.

Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.

Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.

On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Telegram Channels

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

Pro-Russian

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.

https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.

https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.

https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.

https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.

https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.

https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.

https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.

https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine

Almost every Western media outlet.

https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.

https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.

Last week’s discussion post.

  • SimulatedLiberalism [none/use name]@hexbear.netEnglish
    25·
    10 months ago

    I am going to go against a lot of people and say this: it’s always about destabilizing Europe, which is a prerequisite for their final confrontation against China.

    I recently watched the Chinese economist Wen Tiejun’s assessment about the war in Ukraine (who has similar views to Michael Hudson’s): if the early 20th century conflicts in Europe (WWI and WWII, which was just the continuation of WWI) was an inter-imperialist war between industrial capitalist powers, then the early 21st century conflicts in Europe is an inter-imperialist war between financial capitalist powers. All this is to set the stage for the final confrontation between finance capital (amassed under the US) vs industrial capital (consolidated under China).

    The US doesn’t really care about Russia (although destroying it is nice), as Russia’s economy is far too weak to be any major player in the game other than as raw resource supplier. What the US fears to death, though, is the EU alignment with Russia, which would then set the stage for EU integration with China.

    So, the war in Ukraine is not really about Ukraine or Russia, ironically. The US doesn’t care about NATO tanks blown up in Ukraine, or a few F-16s getting shot down. Instead, it’s to sever whatever links left between the EU and Russia, and to ensure that European capital flows to the US sphere, and not towards the other direction.

    To understand why this is has to happen, we have to go back to the 2009 financial crisis that dealt a serious blow to the US financial sector.

    The EU was established in 1993 in the wake of the collapse of the USSR, and the eurozone followed soon after in 1999. European financial capitalists had been able to exploit and cannibalize the vast amount of public assets in the newly collapsed post-USSR states, and through which amassed a powerful financial bloc that poses a threat to the dollar regime. (The EU and eurozone are also replete with their own contradictions and crises, but we’re not going into that today, simply that the euro has for the most part maintained a 30% strength over the dollar exchange rate).

    After experiencing a major setback after the 2009 financial crisis, the US realized that it has to depress the growth of European financial capital. Nord Stream 1 came online in 2011, endowing Europe with cheap energy supply that greatly accelerated their post-GFC economic recovery. Thus, the Maidan coup in 2013 was exploited by the US and the sanctions against Russia in 2014 were meant to deal a blow against EU-Russia relations. The US also spoiled the second EU-Russia pipeline project (South Stream) that was meant to go to southern Europe (Russian gas now goes to Turkey instead).

    Then Nord Stream 2 was completed in 2021, and the US kept finding ways to block its certification process, and the opening of the pipeline was delayed indefinitely when Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022, and then crippled permanently when it was sabotaged in September 2022.

    As you can see, the net effects of the war in Ukraine is really the destabilization of Europe, and its financial capital outflow towards the US. Euro was weakened to around parity with the dollar, though it has regained to like 7% stronger than the dollar now, still far from its previous 30% strength against the dollar. Their industries have now fled the region, some to the US (only to be cannibalized by the financial raiders), and some toward the East.

    This is also why European neoliberals are so ready to induce self-inflicted wounds against their own economies: the strength of US finance capital takes precedence to European industrial capital. If the US financial sector needs help to fight against China, then Europe is willing to sacrifice themselves if that means the US gets to devour their finance capital.

    And we are really getting to the point where the vast majority of the global financial capital has now been consolidated under the US, while industrial capital are amassing towards the BRICS bloc (although it really is just China, as the rest of the BRICS+ countries are still too weak economically).

    The heightened contradictions of capitalism have now set the stage for the final confrontation between the two opposing systems: financial capitalism vs industrial capitalism. Can finance capitalism defeat industrial capitalism simply through weaponizing finance and printing currency? Can industrial capitalism resist against the omnipresent, all-pervasive threat of the dollar regime?

    • MultigrainCerealista [he/him, comrade/them]@hexbear.netEnglish
      13·
      10 months ago

      I don’t think what you’re saying is wrong, it’s more that I think it’s too convoluted.

      Something like 75% of the worlds oil is in the Caspian basin and this explains most of the past 30 years of US war.

      I think Iraq, Georgia, Ukraine, Crimea, Syria, it’s about that oil and the countries in proximity to it.

      This stuff about “finance capital vs industrial capital” I dunno, it’s not wrong I just think it’s a bit too abstract high concept.

      • emizeko [they/them]@hexbear.netEnglish
        14·
        10 months ago

        that doesn’t sound right to me, are you sure?

        Proven reserves in the Caspian Basin are 15.31 billion barrels of oil, or 2.7% of world reserves. It is also estimated to contain some 230–360 trillion cubic feet of gas, or 7% of world reserves. Estimates of possible petroleum reserves vary from as few as 20 billion to as many as 200 billion barrels of oil.

      • SimulatedLiberalism [none/use name]@hexbear.netEnglish
        11·
        10 months ago

        Can you elaborate?

        The US shale revolution has already dealt serious blow to oil producing countries like Russia, Venezuela and Iran when the US flooded the market with their cheap oil and causing the plunge in world’s oil prices in 2014-2016. The US has already won the oil battle.

        • SeventyTwoTrillion [he/him]@hexbear.netOPMEnglish
          15·
          10 months ago

          The US has already won the oil battle.

          This feels a little pessimistic, there’s rumblings about US oil production decreasing substantially next year:

          While the EIA and others see U.S. shale production rising through the end of 2024, there are some worrying signs that production may already be slowing. The two main drivers of U.S. shale production, DUC withdrawals and the rig count, are in decline while 82% of wells drilled in 2022 were to replace legacy production. With analysts already warning of an oil price spike later this year, a dramatic drop in U.S. shale production will add significant upside to any rally.

          And also the SPR is almost the lowest it’s ever been - in the context of rising oil prices. Business Insider itself is saying that Biden has less and less ammunition now:

          Oil prices are surging again, but the Biden administration’s biggest weapon for bringing them down has much less ammunition. Last year, the federal government drained 180 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as oil prices soared in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the turmoil in energy markets that followed. Flooding the market with all that supply helped bring oil prices down — and helped cool inflation, which had shot up as well.

          Earlier this year, the administration took some steps to start refilling the SPR. But while it has ticked up slightly, the level remains near 40-year lows at about 350 million barrels. That’s less than half of the all-time highs from 2010 and about 40% below where it was when the withdrawals began. “America’s SPR is the largest in the world and stands ready to deliver on its mission to respond to future supply disruptions, providing relief when needed most,” a spokesperson for the Energy Department said in a statement to Insider. But the department didn’t specifically address questions on whether the Biden administration plans fresh withdrawals and how much scope the SPR has for additional drawdowns.

          Another US stockpile of oil comes from commercial inventories, which sit at 416.6 million barrels. But that source tends to be more volatile than the SPR and has dropped 21% from a year ago. Meanwhile, Brent crude prices recently hit a 10-month high, having jumped more than 20% since late June, and US gasoline prices hit their highest summertime levels in over a decade, even as the driving season has ended. That came as Saudi Arabia and Russia announced they would prolong their oil production cuts for another three months until December. The stock market has started to feel the ripple effects from rising oil prices. With prices for crude and refined fuels shooting up, investors are growing more concerned that inflation could re-accelerate after more than a year of slowing down. And that could force the Federal Reserve to keep benchmark rates higher for longer, or even raise them further.

          For now, the SPR looks to be a non-factor. Last month, the Biden administration canceled plans to add 6 million barrels back in the reserve, saying the price of oil at the time didn’t offer taxpayers a good deal. Prices have since continued to march higher. And Congress nixed its earlier plans to sell 140 million barrels from the SPR over the next three years in a spending bill that was passed in December.

          To be sure, the US can also pump plenty of oil. It became the world’s biggest oil producer over the last two decades as the shale boom unlocked huge volumes in Texas, New Mexico, and North Dakota. But the Energy Department recently estimated that the top US shale regions will continue pumping less oil this month, after hitting a record high in July. And over the longer term, the productive capacity of shale wells is looking less robust. Research firm Enverus recently said that the natural drop-off rate in a well’s output is much steeper than originally thought. So oil companies must drill new wells at a faster clip just to keep output steady.

          Seems to me that OPEC+ is mounting its offensive and starting to win. They’re putting Biden in a zugzwang - continue the course, watch oil prices increase as you use up your supplies, and lose the election, or engineer a recession to bring down oil prices and lose the election.

          • SimulatedLiberalism [none/use name]@hexbear.netEnglish
            9·
            10 months ago

            IMEC is coming

            Pursuant to this Memorandum of Understanding, the Governments of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the European Union, the Republic of India, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the French Republic, the Federal Republic of Germany, the Italian Republic, and the United States of America (the “Participants”) commit to work together to establish the India – Middle East – Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). The IMEC is expected to stimulate economic development through enhanced connectivity and economic integration between Asia, the Arabian Gulf, and Europe.

            The IMEC will be comprised of two separate corridors, the east corridor connecting India to the Arabian Gulf and the northern corridor connecting the Arabian Gulf to Europe. It will include a railway that, upon completion, will provide a reliable and cost-effective cross-border ship-to-rail transit network to supplement existing maritime and road transport routes – enabling goods and services to transit to, from, and between India, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel, and Europe.

            As I have been sounding the alarm over the months, the Biden counter-offensives have begun. The real goal is to reroute the supply chain away from China and its Belt and Road Initiative. (Still, without Iran, the IMEC supply chain looks odd)

            • meth_dragon [none/use name]@hexbear.netEnglish
              4·
              10 months ago

              imo tpp was the US’ best shot at a comprehensive and future proof anti china platform, best thing trump did was take it out and the US has been on the strategic back foot ever since

              will be interesting to see the real meat of the biden counteroffensives though, while it seems the initial probing attacks in the tech sector have been bogged down, i feel like brandon’s best chances in the economic sector will be in the latam/africa directions. problem is that those places are currently just good for raw resource extraction, value added work there would be risky due to political instability and low quality of human capital. which basically just leaves the imperial core itself.

              problem is that the imperial core has all these domestic problems that seem to be nigh unsolveable barring some kind of a fascist yakubian messiah. how are barely literate, obese, mentally ill military rejects with 900$ rents and a 57 minute commute going to be able to work iphone factory shifts long enough to prop up the falling rate of profit?

              the imperial core should join the BRI, have china build infrastructure for it, then eventually force majeure everything back with a manufactured humanitarian crisis. at this point hopefully latam/africa have developed sufficiently to support supply lines beyond raw resource extraction, at this point the core can then just implement the new monroe doctrine deal and regenerate its labor aristocracy

          • Parzivus [any]@hexbear.netEnglish
            5·
            10 months ago

            It cannot be overstated how huge fracking/shale oil is for US energy independence. I wouldn’t be surprised if declining production kicks off a new level of imperialism