back in my map era, we’re ukrainemaxxing right now


Declarations of the imminent doom of Ukraine are a news megathread specialty, and this is not what I am doing here - mostly because I’m convinced that whenever we do so, the war extends another three months to spite us. Ukraine has been in an essentially apocalyptic crisis for over a year now after the failure of the 2023 counteroffensive, unable to make any substantial progress and resigned to merely being a persistent nuisance (and arms market!) as NATO fights to the last Ukrainian. In this context, predicting a terminal point is difficult, as things seem to always be going so badly that it’s hard to understand how and why they fight on. In every way, Ukraine is a truly shattered country, barely held together by the sheer combined force of Western hegemony. And that hegemony is weakening.

I therefore won’t be giving any predictions of a timeframe for a Ukrainian defeat, but the coming presidency of Trump is a big question mark for the conflict. Trump has talked about how he wishes for the war to end and for a deal to be made with Putin, but Trump also tends to change his mind on an issue at least three or four times before actually making a decision, simply adopting the position of who talked to him last. And, of course, his ability to end the war might be curtailed by a military-industrial complex (and various intelligence agencies) that want to keep the money flowing.

The alignment of the US election with the accelerating rate of Russian gains is pretty interesting, with talk of both escalation and de-escalation coinciding - the former from Biden, and the latter from Trump. Russia very recently performed perhaps the single largest aerial attack of Ukraine of the entire war, striking targets across the whole country with missiles and drones from various platforms. In response, the US is talking about allowing Ukraine to hit long-range targets in Russia (but the strategic value of this, at this point, seems pretty minimal).

Additionally, Russia has made genuine progress in terms of land acquisition. We aren’t talking about endless and meaningless battles over empty fields anymore. Some of the big Ukrainian strongholds that we’ve been spending the last couple years speculating over - Chasiv Yar, Kupiansk, Orikhiv - are now being approached and entered by Russian forces. The map is actually changing now, though it’s hard to tell as Ukraine is so goddamn big.

Attrition has finally paid off for Russia. An entire generation of Ukrainians has been fed into the meat grinder. Recovery will take, at minimum, decades - more realistically, the country might be permanently ruined, until that global communist revolution comes around at least. And they could have just made a fucking deal a month into the war.


Please check out the HexAtlas!

The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week’s thread is here.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


  • companero [he/him]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    16
    ·
    55 minutes ago

    I really don’t believe that Russia’s red line about long range missiles is a bluff. Putin specifically said that such attacks would mean direct conflict with NATO. Russia’s nuclear doctrine was changed to authorize the use of nuclear weapons in response.

    Russia’s actual response (probably not nukes) remains a mystery, but I bet that they have something planned, and will do it if necessary. Of course, this will only happen if Ukraine actually launches the missiles.

    The vibes I’m getting make me think that Ukraine may attempt massive combined missile/drone strikes on Russia, including Western weapons. I sure hope they don’t try that, because Russia could genuinely consider that an existential threat worthy of using nukes over.

    • Dolores [love/loves]@hexbear.net
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      5
      ·
      11 minutes ago

      the just-Kursk allowance seems like something Russia could safely ignore, it’s pretty laughable that Ukraine still seems to think occupying a couple villages will net them something substantial in the negotiations, if these missiles were capable of stymieing Russia’s liberating of the Kursk territory in the first place–which judging by ATACMS not slowing the Donbass front where they are already allowed to use them… seems doubtful

    • Adkml [he/him]@hexbear.net
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      5
      ·
      edit-2
      9 minutes ago

      I honestly think ukraines strayegynfor a while has been to be able to use western weapons for escalators strikes so that other countries get dragged in and they don’t have to fight the war on their own.

      Which makes sense, I’m getting pretty tired of Americans saying that every Russian citizen deserves to be burned alive and then have that death celebrated by the international audience because Russia is waging a war, but it’s ridiculous to suggest that America is invl9ved just because they’re supplying intelligence, communication, arms, personally, logistics and are now putting together strike plans to be used against Russia.

      Ukraine gonna paint a big American flag on the side of it and strike all the most inflammatory targets they can come up with in hopes that Russia retaliated against us.

      And honestly I think Biden wants to take revenge on everybody by getting us into a hot war right as Trump gets into office hoping everybody blames Trump like they did Biden.

  • SoyViking [he/him]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    16
    ·
    1 hour ago

    The exact scope of the American Biden regime’s decision to attack Russia with ATACMS missiles is not known in detail. In an interview with state media DR foreign minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen has expressed disappointment in what he believes to be a limited scope of the planned attacks:

    If it were true that the U.S. had lifted geographic restrictions, that would be good. But I have a sense that this is relatively limited and likely focused on Kursk. And that’s, of course, better than nothing,

    (DR found it fitting to embellish Rasmussen’s statement by inserting a note about “Pentagon” claiming that there are 10,000 democratic Korean troops in the Kursk oblast. I have omitted it from the quote)

    Even the Danish regime, who has been among the most bellicose, is now beginning to slowly realise that the west will not be able to impose it’s maximalist demands on Russia. Rasmussen is now talking about how the purpose of the American ATACMS attacks is not to achieve victory but to make sure that Ukraine has the “strongest possible position for when and if the dynamics of this war change.” He goes on to say that “It’s a sober prediction that this could happen sometime in the new year,”

    Rasmussen continues:

    President Zelensky has also stated that the war will likely shift to a diplomatic phase at some point. And it’s crucial that Ukraine has the strongest possible advantage in that scenario

    One way to make a difference is to lift geographic restrictions (on the use of Western weapons). Unfortunately, I don’t currently see this happening one-to-one. But something is better than nothing,"

    However, the Danish regime has yet to move to a more realistic position on the war. Rasmussen is mostly dismissive of German leader Olaf Scholz’ attempts to resume dialogue with Russia by making a phone call to Putin. Rasmussen says:

    If the purpose was to persuade Putin to end the war, it clearly didn’t succeed. Because immediately afterward, we saw one of the most massive Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in a very long time

    This, of course, is a deeply unserious statement that should be seen as a symptom of the butthurt many western maximalists must be experiencing these days.

    Despite his bruised ego, Rasmussen is enough of an opportunist to realise that the reality of the war is shifting both on the ground and in the imperial court of Washington where the incoming Trump regime might be less keen to continue the war. He says that European countries needs to understand “what’s what” and says that “We must avoid a situation where we simply have no role to play. If the call aimed to ensure that, I’m more understanding”.

    He adds:

    There’s nothing from that conversation suggesting President Putin is remotely ready to negotiate."

  • sputnik1 [comrade/them]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    23
    ·
    2 hours ago

    The Israel-1 “AI supercomputer” debuts on the list of fastest supercomputers, ranked #34 out of 500. The list was published today.

    The system has Intel CPUs and Nvidia GPUs.

    Here’s an article from last year on it: regular linkarchive link

    The Israel-1 is listed as a U.S. system despite being in Israel. Israel doesn’t have any systems on the Top 500 super-computer list. The other system Nvidia announced around the same time, called Tapei-1, shows Taiwan as the country. Both systems are said to be housed in Nvidia data centers.

  • Torenico [he/him]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    25
    ·
    edit-2
    2 hours ago

    capitalism DEFINITELY is when no food. ancaptain

    Argentina snubs G20 summit launch of Brazil’s global anti-hunger alliance

    *Argentina the only G20 country not to sign up to a global anti-hunger initiative set to be launched at the opening of leaders summit in Brazil. *

    Argentina was the only G20 country not to sign up to a global anti-hunger initiative set to be launched at the opening of a G20 summit in Rio, host Brazil said Monday. The decision by Argentina – led by President Javier Milei – deepens a political gap between the nation and neighbouring Brazil, whose left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is championing the Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty.

    A total of 81 countries signed on to the flagship initiative – including 18 of the 19 nations in the G20 – but Argentina was not among them, according to a communiqué. Its membership is “under negotiation,” a source in the Brazilian Presidency told the AFP news agency.

    The Global Alliance is an ambitious initiative pushed by Lula, a former steel-worker. It aims to eradicate hunger and poverty by 2030 and reduce inequality. Milei and Lula, whose countries share a border, have had a tense relationship even prior to the Argentine’s election last year.

    An ally of US president-elect Donald Trump, Milei has imposed radical austerity measures in Argentina to bring down high inflation. The policies sent the poverty rate in the country soaring to 52.9 percent in the first half of this year, 11 percentage points higher than in the previous six-month period.

    Milei was the first world leader to see Trump after the Republican’s win in the US presidential election. He attended a gala at the Republican’s Mar-a-Lago Florida estate last Thursday.

    The Argentine leader has several times labeled Lula a “communist” and “corrupt.”

    The Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty also has the support of international organizations such as the European Union and the African Union – both G20 members – as well as financial institutions and NGOs, bringing the total number of signatories to 147. The initiative’s goal is ambitious: to reduce world hunger, which affected 733 million people last year – nine percent of the global population – according to the UN.

    For Lula, who grew up in poverty before a trade unionist and eventually president of Latin America’s biggest economy, the initiative is dear to his heart. At a national level, his left-wing policies have already lifted millions of Brazilians out of poverty.

    I sometimes don’t even know what they’re trying to achieve. Hunger good I guess? It’s even worse when we consider that these global programs never really have impact on the matter, because hunger and poverty are essential to Capitalism, but still they have to signal that any kind of movement towards improvement, no matter how insignificant, must be squashed. Just sign the fucking thing you pathetic motherfucker.

    death to “israel” btw

    • Rojo27 [he/him]@hexbear.net
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      2
      ·
      30 minutes ago

      Joining the caught against hunger on the side of hunger. Milei should put his money where his month is though and go on a hunger strike until the anti-hunger initiative ends.

  • meth_dragon [none/use name]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    25
    ·
    3 hours ago

    minor movements on the currency front. i expect to see similar shenanigans down the line as tensions continue to escalate but my marxist orthodoxy tells me that war in europe will remain the focal point for anti imperialist struggle for the foreseeable future.

  • Aquilae [he/him, they/them]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    27
    ·
    3 hours ago

    Russia vetoes Sudan ceasefire resolution put forward by the UK

    Russia was the only member of the 15-member council to vote against the measure on Monday morning, in a move that British Foreign Secretary David Lammy said was “mean, nasty and cynical”.

    In an address to the Security Council after the vote, Russia’s deputy ambassador to the UN said that Moscow agreed “that the conflict in Sudan requires a swift resolution” and that “the only way to achieve this is for the warring parties to agree to a ceasefire”.

    But Dmitry Polyanskiy said that while the Security Council’s role is to help the warring parties achieve that, it “should not be done by imposing upon the Sudanese, through a council decision, the opinion of its individual members”.

    He accused the UK and Sierra Leone of “double standards”, pointing to Britain’s support of Israel’s ongoing humanitarian violations in its war in Gaza, and said Lammy’s criticism was an “excellent demonstration of British neo-colonialism”.

    “It is shocking that Russia has vetoed an effort to save lives – though perhaps, it shouldn’t be,” Thomas-Greenfield said on Monday after the Security Council vote. “They claim it is because of Sudanese sovereignty. But Sudan supports the resolution.”

    Isn’t this a terrible look? Though I doubt a UN resolution alone would change much.

  • totalyNOTaPIRATE [none/use name]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    44
    ·
    4 hours ago

    German Org named after a literal NSDAP (nazi party) member dont want to give a award to a anti israeli guy.

    German architecture award rescinded over British artist’s Israel boycott vow

    Schelling Architecture Foundation refuses to give James Bridle his €10k prize after he signed open letter Philip Oltermann European culture editor Mon 18 Nov 2024 14.27 GMT

    A German architecture foundation has rescinded one of its €10,000 (£8,360) awards from a British artist over an open letter he signed promising a boycott of Israeli cultural institutions, citing the German parliament’s controversial antisemitism resolution as a factor behind the decision.

    The Athens-based artist and author James Bridle was announced in June as the recipient of the Schelling Architecture Foundation’s theory prize, awarded every two years, for his “outstanding contributions to architectural theory”.

    But on Sunday, days before this Wednesday’s awards ceremony in the south-western city of Karlsruhe, Bridle was informed in an email that the foundation’s committee had decided unanimously not to award him the prize because he was among the several thousand authors who signed an open letter calling for a boycott of Israeli cultural institutions.

    Signatories of the pledge, published on LitHub at the end of October, stated that “we will not work with Israeli cultural institutions that are complicit or have remained silent observers of the overwhelming oppression of Palestinians”.

    In a press release, the foundation said Bridle’s signature on the letter was “in direct contradiction” to responsibilities from the “awareness of Germany’s national history”.

    The foundation’s prizes, which have been awarded since 1992, are named after the late German architect Erich Schilling. On its website, the foundation says Schilling was a member of the NSDAP, the German Nazi party, between 1937 and 1945, and worked on the construction of the offices of the publishing house of the party newspaper Der Führer.

    “We respect the right to express political views, especially since the foundation does not accuse James Bridle of antisemitism,” its statement said. “But the foundation can neither support nor be associated with a call for cultural isolation of Israel.”

    In its email to Bridle, which has been seen by the Guardian, the foundation further linked its decision to a cross-party resolution passed by the German parliament earlier this month.

    “The German Bundestag has just passed a resolution on the protection of Jewish life, which points the way forward for state institutions and is relevant to society as a whole,” the foundation said in its email.

    The resolution, entitled Never Again is Now: Protecting, Preserving and Strengthening Jewish Life in Germany, was first proposed after the Hamas terror attack on 7 October 2023. International NGOs including Amnesty International and Israeli Jewish groups campaigning for a two-state solution have criticised its text for eliding antisemitism and criticism of Israel’s human rights record, predicting it would have a chilling effect on freedom of expression.

    The resolution says “the Bundestag reaffirms its decision to ensure that no organisations or projects that spread antisemitism, question Israel’s right to exist, call for a boycott of Israel or actively support the Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions (BDS) movement receive financial support”.

    Bridle told the Guardian: “Although they are clearly not prepared to state it outright, the foundation’s decision is an accusation of antisemitism, which is abhorrent. It is particularly so given the organisation’s own history.”

    Bridle said there was an irony in that the Schilling jury cited as particularly deserving of recognition his 2022 bookd Ways of Being, which contained a discussion of Israel’s “apartheid wall” in the occupied West Bank, and “of the relationship between genocide and ecocide”.

    A spokesperson for the foundation said the other nominees for the prize had been informed of their decision, “and we have to be prepared for there to be further reactions”.

  • glans [it/its]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    19
    ·
    3 hours ago

    @SeventyTwoTrillion I’m not a regular here so not sure of the conventions. Did you make this map? If so very nice! I have one suggestion which is instead of titling it “to present” put the date in so when the image because separated from the text it’ll be more useful. If not your work could just add it in the edge somewhere.

    (On mobile with no emojis but someone remind me to add “graphic design is my passion” later on.)